Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."