Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Drives The Villans' Surprising Push for Glory

Just 60 days in the past that the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager scolded him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the source of the side's more general malaise.

On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. After the England international curled home his second strike to restore his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win their opening six matches, find themselves a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?

It remains a particularly tough query to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, while the victories have piled up.

As per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side who have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – but right now the margins are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their talisman to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.

His opener originated from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. Against United, the opposition managed more shots and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club have to face in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling his shots into the top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he showed during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.